Tropical Cyclone Narelle has been keeping forecasters busy, with global models showing a range of possible entry points along Western Australia’s mid west and central west coastline. While the early “spaghetti plots” looked like someone had dropped a bowl of linguine across the map, the latest guidance has tightened, and most models are now favouring a Geraldton-region crossing.

For communities further south, including Dawesville and the broader Peel region, Narelle is a reminder that even when landfall is expected hundreds of kilometres away, the flow-on effects (swells, winds, rainfall and coastal erosion) can still be felt.

A cyclone with options: the early model spread

When Narelle first formed, the steering environment was messy. A weakening ridge to the south, a trough brushing the west coast, competing mid-level winds and warm ocean temperatures along a broad stretch of coastline all combined to give the system plenty of options.

As a result, early model runs showed multiple potential landfall zones, including:

• Shark Bay
• Geraldton and the broader Mid West
• Areas north of Jurien Bay
• A few outliers hinting at a track further south

For a time, it was genuinely unclear which scenario would win out. This is typical in the early life of a tropical cyclone, when small changes in the atmosphere can nudge the system onto a very different path.

Why models are now favouring Geraldton

As Narelle has developed, the large-scale pattern around it has become better defined. The subtropical ridge to the south has re-organised, and the trough along the coast has helped "open the door" near the Mid West. With more observations feeding into the models, the spread of possible tracks has narrowed.

Most major models are now clustering around a landfall somewhere in the Geraldton region. This does not mean the exact crossing point is locked in, but it does mean confidence is higher that the Mid West is more likely to see the core of the system than locations further north or south.

This kind of convergence between models is a key signal for emergency managers and communities to start treating a scenario as “more likely than not”, while still planning for reasonable alternatives.

What this means for Dawesville and the Peel coast

Even if Narelle crosses near Geraldton, the system’s influence will extend well beyond the landfall point. For Dawesville and the Peel coast, the main concerns are likely to be:

• Large swells: Long-period swells travelling down the coast, increasing the risk of beach and dune erosion.
• Strong winds: Gusty conditions, especially if the system or its remnants track southwards inland.
• Heavy rain bands: Periods of intense rainfall, depending on how the system interacts with existing fronts and troughs.
• Coastal impacts: Elevated water levels and choppy conditions in estuaries and inlets.

Local corridors, dunes and estuarine edges that are already under pressure from previous storms or high tides may be more vulnerable during and after Narelle’s passage.

Reading the models without panicking

Residents should treat cyclone model maps as guidance, not guarantees. Each line on a track map represents a different model or model run, and even when they cluster, there is always some uncertainty.

A few practical tips for interpreting cyclone information include:

• Focus on the cone, not the line: The official forecast track comes with a "cone of uncertainty" for a reason.
• Watch trends over time: If models keep shifting in one direction over several updates, that trend matters.
• Use official sources: Rely on the Bureau of Meteorology and emergency services for warnings and advice.
• Think in zones, not dots: Consider how your broader region might be affected, not just a single landfall point.

Staying prepared, even when landfall is “up the road”

For Dawesville and surrounding communities, Narelle is another reminder that preparation is not just for people living right on the forecast crossing point. The same basic steps apply whenever a significant system is in the region:

• Secure loose items: Outdoor furniture, bins and lightweight materials can become projectiles in strong winds.
• Play equipment:  Tie down trampolines, swing sets, pools, bouncy castles, etc.
• Check gutters and drains: Clear blockages so heavy rain can drain away more easily.
• Review your plan: Know where you will get updates, who you will check in with, and what you will do if conditions worsen.
• Look out for vulnerable neighbours: Older residents, people with disabilities and new arrivals may need extra support.

The Dawesy Hub will continue to track Narelle’s progress and share locally relevant updates on their Facebook Page.

Cyclone Narelle may be aiming at Geraldton, but its story is part of a much bigger picture - one that connects the Mid West, Peel and the entire west coast through shared weather, shared coastlines and shared responsibilities.